Second season syndrome all over again for Carlo Ancelotti at Real Madrid?
Los Blancos are eight points behind Barcelona in LaLiga and in need of a boost as they travel to Morocco for the FIFA Club World Cup
Carlo Ancelotti has been here before. The Italian’s first spell at Real Madrid ended after a disappointing second season failed to match the success of his debut campaign. It may be only February, but already there are signs it could happen all over again.
On Sunday, Madrid were beaten by a single goal by Mallorca in LaLiga and after Barcelona’s 3-0 win over Sevilla later in the day, Los Blancos trail their fierce rivals by eight points at the top of the table after 20 rounds of matches. It is a long way back from there.
According to Opta’s statistics, Madrid now only have a 10.1% chance of winning LaLiga. Even by their standards, that would be an impressive comeback. And given Barcelona’s consistency so far in 2022-23, it seems unlikely.
Real’s squad were due to fly out to Morocco on Monday afternoon for the FIFA Club World Cup. After their latest loss in LaLiga and the recent defeat to Barcelona in the Supercopa final in Saud Arabia, the intercontinental competition is perhaps a welcome distraction for Los Blancos. But winning it is also an obligation.
Madrid meet African champions Al Ahly in the semi-finals on Wednesday and if they advance, Ancelotti’s side will face Flamengo of Brazil or Saudi Arabia’s Al-Hilal in Sunday’s showpiece. And although it is a trophy Madrid should win, it is also an opportunity to lift morale and claim some silverware ahead of tougher tests at home and in Europe.
Ancelotti has already won the Club World Cup with Madrid. After leading Los Blancos to the Champions League crown and a Copa del Rey in his debut campaign back in 2013-14, the Italian claimed the UEFA Super Cup and the Club World Cup in the first half of his second season. But it was not enough to keep him in a job.
That Club World Cup triumph saw Madrid end 2014 with a trophy and a record 22 straight victories in all competitions. But Ancelotti’s side were unable to take that form into 2015 and missed out on the big prizes at the end of the season as Barça won the treble. Despite his popularity in the dressing room and the support of key players like Cristiano Ronaldo and Sergio Ramos, he was sacked.
With LaLiga looking difficult, Madrid might be left looking – as so often in the past – to the Champions League to save their season. Los Blancos won it last year following a remarkable run of results and memorable comebacks against PSG, Chelsea and Manchester City, before beating Liverpool in the final. But there was a considerable amount of fortune along the way and not even the 14-time winners can claim the trophy every season.
The Copa del Rey offers another chance of a trophy this season. Madrid meet Barça over two legs in the semi-finals in March and April as they seek to win the cup competition for the first time since 2014 (when Ancelotti was also in charge).
But the Copa del Rey alone would be unlikely to keep Ancelotti at Real for a third season. To extend his spell in Madrid, the Italian will need to win either LaLiga or the Champions League. Or both. That is just how things work at the Santiago Bernabéu.
Likewise with the Club World Cup. Madrid have brought home the trophy on all four occasions after winning the Champions League in recent seasons – even in the disastrous 2018-19 season under Santiago Solari, which followed the departures of Ronaldo and Zinédine Zidane the previous summer. As the European representative, they are the strongest side in the competition. Winning is expected.
After a difficult period for Real, claiming the Club World Cup at this point would still provide a much-needed boost for Ancelotti and the club. But it is also a potential banana skin for the Spanish side. Because Madrid’s opponents in Morocco will certainly believe this is a good time to face Los Blancos – and not only because of their fluctuating form of late.
There are injuries, too. Karim Benzema’s fitness remains a concern for Madrid and the French forward is unlikely to feature against Al Ahly, while defender Éder Militão also missed Sunday’s game at Mallorca and goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois seems set to be ruled out altogether after suffering a problem in the warm-up at Son Moix. Ferland Mendy, Lucas Vázquez and Eden Hazard are not expected to be fit for Wednesday's game, either.
“The most important thing is every match we have to play,” Ancelotti said on Sunday when asked if Madrid could catch Barça in LaLiga. “Now we have the [Club] World Cup, which we want to win. After that, we will come back to fight LaLiga until the end. We’re not finished yet.”
Ancelotti is, of course, vastly experienced and the Italian is correct in his assessment. There is indeed a long way to go before the biggest prizes are handed out in May and June, but there is already a sense of déjà vu about his second season in Madrid.