And then there were eight... analysing this season's Champions League quarter-finalists
A look at the clubs left in the European Cup and their prospects in the latter stages
The Champions League has reached its quarter-final stage. Before qualifying last summer, there had been 78 teams from 53 associations across Europe. That was whittled down to 32 for the competition proper. And of those, three quarters have now been eliminated. Following the group stage and the round of 16, only eight remain. It’s serious stuff now.
Italy have three teams in the last eight for the first time since 2005-06. Is Serie A back? Certainly, the decline of Juventus looks to have made others stronger. The Bianconeri went out of the competition in the group stages, but Napoli, AC Milan and Inter are all into the quarter-finals.
Spain had three teams in the last eight in 2021-22, but there is just one representative from LaLiga in the quarter-finals this time. Atlético Madrid, Barcelona and Sevilla all exited the Champions League in the group phase, leaving Real Madrid to fly the flag for LaLiga. But to be fair to Los Blancos, as 14-time winners and defending champions, they are rather good at doing that.
The dominance of English clubs has grown progressively in Europe with the sheer financial might of the Premier League in recent years, but there are only two through from the EPL this time: Chelsea and Manchester City. Liverpool and Spurs both went out in the last 16.
That leaves six-time winners Bayern Munich and Portuguese champions Benfica. The Bavarians, of course, are regulars at this stage of the competition. The Lisbon outfit, meanwhile, are into the last eight for the second season in a row.
So who will win? Here is a look at the eight remaining clubs and their chances of lifting the trophy in Istanbul later this season following last month’s draw…
AC Milan
AC Milan’s passage to the last eight was something of a surprise given their form at the time. Last season’s Italian champions were well beaten home and away by Chelsea in the group stage and have suffered a number of disappointing defeats in Serie A this season, leaving them 22 points behind leaders Napoli. The Rossoneri edged out Tottenham over two legs in the last 16, but their best chance of progressing to the last four looked like being a meeting with city rivals Inter in the quarter-finals.
Instead, Milan will play Napoli in the last eight. The Rossoneri lost 2-1 when the two teams met at San Siro earlier this season and will certainly be seen as underdogs in this tie given the teams’ respective campaigns in Serie A this term.
However, Milan’s 4-0 win away to Napoli in the league on April 2 will give the Rossoneri renewed confidence and belief heading into this tie. The San Siro side also have pedigree in this competition, although the last of their seven titles was in 2006-07 and should have little bearing here. The winner will meet either Benfica or Inter in the semi-finals.
Bayern Munich
Bayern Munich’s lead in the Bundesliga this season is slender, with just a two-point advantage over Borussia Dortmund after 27 matches. That advantage was recently lost as the Bavarians were beaten by Bayer Leverkusen and the club took the somewhat surprising decision to sack coach Julian Nagelsmann. New boss Thomas Tuchel then oversaw a win over BVB and Bayern are back on the top of the table, though they were knocked out of the German cup by Freiburg earlier this month.
In Europe, Bayern were impeccable under Nagelsmann, winning all eight of their games in the Champions League this season. Those included victories home and way to Barcelona and Inter in the group stage, plus back-to-back successes against Paris Saint-Germain in the last 16. The 2020 champions are potential winners again, especially with Tuchel in charge.
Theirs is a tough route to the trophy, though. Bayern will meet Manchester City in the last eight, where Tuchel’s good record against Guardiola could be key, before a possible semi-final match-up against Real Madrid or Chelsea. That winning record is set to be severely tested now.
Benfica
Benfica are also unbeaten in the Champions League this season. The Portuguese champions beat Juventus twice in the group stage and edged out Paris Saint-Germain to finish first in their sector, having drawn home and away with the French side. They swept aside Club Brugge 7-1 over two legs in the last 16, albeit after a favourable draw, and have broken a number of records en route to the quarter-finals. Can they go through again?
The draw has definitely given them a great chance. Benfica meet Inter in the last eight and may well be slight favourites to get through that one. Win the tie and they will face either AC Milan or Napoli in the semi-finals. Suddenly, the path has opened up for them and they now look like possible finalists, especially with Napoli somewhat untested at this level.
Chelsea
Chelsea struggled under Graham Potter and victory over Borussia Dortmund in the last 16 turned out to be a false dawn for the former Brighton manager, who was sacked earlier this month. Frank Lampard has since returned to the Blues on an interim basis and with Champions League qualification through the Premier League almost impossible, winning the competition itself represents their most realistic route back in next season.
But Lampard lost his first game back, 1-0 to Wolves at the weekend, and the Blues have been handed an extremely difficult draw. Chelsea meet Real Madrid in the last eight and if they were to get through that, they would face Manchester City or Bayern Munich in the semi-finals. There is little pressure at this point and that could make them dangerous, but there is little evidence to suggest the west London club can make it past any of those teams.
Inter
Inter have dropped from second in Serie A at the time of the draw to fifth place in the table and are now a full 23 points behind Napoli after 10 defeats already this season, including three in a row recently.
In the Champions League group stages, the nerazzurri finished second behind Bayern Munich and ahead of Barcelona, before edging out Porto in the last 16. In the quarter-finals, it is Portuguese opposition again for Inter as Benfica await. Although they will have been pleased to avoid the big guns in Friday’s draw, they will go into that tie as the underdogs and their recent form will need to improve dramatically if they are to adavance again.
If they do win that tie, they will meet either AC Milan or Napoli in the last four, which would ensure an Italian team makes the final for the first time since Juventus in 2017.
Manchester City
Is this Manchester City’s year in the Champions League? That question is asked every season and so far, the answer has always been ‘no’. But striker Erling Haaland has added an extra ingredient to Pep Guardiola’s great team this term. The Norwegian scored five goals in City’s 7-0 win over RB Leipzig in the teams’ last 16 second leg and probably would have added more if he had not been substituted after 63 minutes. His form in front of goal makes them a formidable threat, yet still there are questions over whether their overall play is inferior with him in the team. Time will tell. But having a clinical striker like Haaland – who has 44 goals in all competitions already this season – could prove to be the difference for City in Europe.
Sooner or later, they will surely win it. But they have been given an extremely difficult route to the final following the draw. Next up for City is a tough tie against Bayern Munich and Tuchel, whose Chelsea side denied them the trophy in the 2021 final. That will represent a stern test of their Champions League credentials and if Pep Guardiola’s side can get through it, they will meet either Real Madrid or Chelsea next. To win the trophy, they will have to beat the best.
Napoli
Napoli’s season has been extraordinary so far. Luciano Spalletti’s side have built up a huge lead in Serie A, leaving the club on course for their first Scudetto since the days of Diego Maradona. In the Champions League, the Partenopei finished above Liverpool in the group stages despite defeat at Anfield in their final fixture, and beat Eintracht Frankfurt 5-0 over two legs in the last 16. Playing perhaps the best football in Europe, they are among the favourites to win the competition this season, but bigger tests await in the latter stages.
However, their quarter-final match-up against AC Milan might be more difficult than most originally thought because Napoli recently lost 4-0 at home to the Rossoneri. That defeat may just sow seeds of doubt for Spalletti’s side, even though their overall form this season suggests they should progress. Win that tie and they will meet either Benfica or Inter in the last four.
Of the teams on that side of the draw, they are the strongest on paper and are potential finalists now, but they are also something of an unknown quantity in the latter stages of the Champions League where mentality is so, so important.
Real Madrid
When Real Madrid trailed Liverpool by two goals at Anfield early in the first leg of the teams’ last-16 tie in February, some were quick to write them off as a fading force in Europe. Never do that. Los Blancos have won this competition 14 times, including last season, and often don’t need to be the best team in it. Carlo Ancelotti’s side have had some problems in 2022-23 and are adrift in LaLiga, but they just know how to turn it on when it matters most in the Champions League. That makes them incredibly dangerous, even when they are in a losing position, as their series of unbelievable comebacks showed last season.
Madrid will face Chelsea in the quarter-finals and are clear favourites to advance, which would set up a potential double date with Manchester City or Bayern Munich in the last four. To take home the trophy, they will have to do it the hard way, just as they did last season. Winners again? Don’t rule them out. Especially after they repeated their Anfield show with a 4-0 demolition of Barcelona at Camp Nou in the Copa del Rey semi-finals last week.